by Sabine Sütterlin
At the end of the 19th century, people still associated offspring with cheap labour and future care for the old. With industrialization and the initiation of public pension schemes, this conception changed. Since then, the birth rates have steadily sunk in Germany, with few exceptions only. Children were no more regarded as a source of income; on the contrary, they started to involve costs. Even the post-WWII “economic miracle” could not restrain this downward trend – with only 1.4 children per woman, Germany is today confronted with some deep and dramatic changes.
Why Do the Germans Have So Little Offspring?
In 1871, the average German woman had almost five children. At the time, a large part of the population lived in poverty, especially on the countryside. Factories, superseding craftsmen with their higher productivity, sprang up rapidly. Due to high redemption prices, expensive modernization measures, usurers and crop failures, also the farmers, although free since the Prussian reforms, ran into debts more and more often. Many of them sought their fortunes in the cities, where the factories were located.
As the industrialization and urbanization proceeded, the birth rates in Germany went down gradually, but constantly. Already in 1935, they stood at just over two children per woman. This decline took place more or less in all the countries transforming themselves from agrarian to industrial economies.
Being dependent on cheap workforce, farmer and craftsmen families had many children throughout the 19th century. In addition, having children was the way for parents to secure their own well-being in their old ages. Through industrialization and the initiation of public pension schemes, the advantages of having multiple children disappeared: children were no longer considered to be factors of production, instead, they turned into being factors of cost. No more was it enough to provide them with food and clothing; instead, the families had to invest more and more in education and growing consumer needs of their descendants.
Eventful Past
The number of children fluctuated a lot in times of war and economic crisis. Since the breakthrough of the pill in the 1970s the number became stable, though on very low level. With 1.4 children per women, german parents get significantly less offspring than needed for a stable population. Before the velvet revolution the number of children were higher in East than in West Germany. The graph displays the course of Germany as a whole.
Women - Better Educated Than Ever
Social upheaval in the aftermath of late 1960s have also changed the women´s societal role. Since then, the percentage of women pursuing a-levels has increased steadily. As well as womens´ occupations in ever better positions. Though, reconcilability between family and career is relatively difficult in Germany.
Growth - Only Among Elderly
Due to low birth rates and longer life expectancy, the proportion of elderly people in society is constantly growing. In 2005, 316 retired persons above 65 per 1000 employable persons lived in Germany. This number will increase up to 644 in 2050.
Offspring - Tending to Decrease
What once was a population-pyramid in 1900 is slowly but steadily transforming into a mushroom. The reason: Since over 30 years each generation replaces only two thirds of its previous generation. Consequently,the German population shrinks and ages.
Hard times for playschools. Due to low birth rates and decreasing cohorts of parents in future, kids will disappear from playschools and playgrounds. In contrast, the population of people above 80 will more than double. In the year 2050, one in eight Germans will be older than 80.
Long Life
Thanks to improved medical care, good nutrition and better working conditions, Germans live ever longer. In the last century we won over 30 years of life expectancy. According to projections, a girl born in 2050 may become 88, a boy 84 respectively.
Literature / Links
Brähler, Elmar / Stöbel-Richter, Yve: Zum Wandel im Reproduktionsverhalten in Deutschland und im europäischen vergleich. Z. ärztl. Fortbildung Qual. sich. (2002) 96; 459-467
Kröhnert, Steffen / Medicus, Franziska / Klingholz, Reiner: Die demografische Lage der Nation. Wie zukunftsfähig sind Deutschlands Regionen? München 2006.
Robert Bosch Stiftung (Hg.): Starke Familie – Bericht der Kommission „Familie und demographischer Wandel“. Stuttgart 2005.
Statistisches Bundesamt: 11. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung, 2006 (www.destatis.de)
State: January 2008
