By Carl Haub

In 2008, India’s population stood at 1.15 billion after having crossed the 1 billion mark in May of 2000. This huge population puts India in second place behind China, with 1.32 billion. Yet faster population growth in India will likely make it the world's largest country before 2025. All numbers in India are large: 27 million annual births, 8.7 million deaths and 1.5 million infant deaths. The group of male children below the age of five, at about 60 million, rivals the entire population size of France. The 2001 Census counted 743 million people living in rural areas, defined as towns of less than 5,000.

Population growth was viewed as a problem very early in India's history as an independent country in 1947. Fertility was high with couples averaging six children each and the country’s difficulties with its public health situation was reflected in life expectancy at birth of only 40 years. It was clear that raising standards of living and improving health conditions would be a difficult task at best in the face of rising population growth. India was the first country to declare a policy to slow population growth in 1952. When we look at the large numbers cited above, was that policy a failure? Not at all. Today the fertility rate of women in India, three children per woman, is half of what it was when the first measures of population policy were announced and life expectancy at birth has risen to 65.

But such progress did not come easily. By the end of the 1960s, fertility had fallen only to about 5.7 children per woman as the family planning program had not reached the rural areas. In the 1970s, during the state of emergency proclaimed by the government of Indira Gandhi, overzealous promotion of family planning through activities such a sterilization camps gave the program a bad reputation. The name of the Ministry of Health and Family Planning was changed to the "Ministry of Health and Family Welfare". For a time, during the early 1980s, fertility decline was slow as a result but it did reach about 4.0 by the end of the decade. During the 1980s, a goal of two children per couple by 2000 was declared but was much too ambitious to be achieved.

Following the 1994 United Nations Conference on Population and Development, a new policy was announced to do away with specific targets and to adopt a more comprehensive approach to reproductive health, de-emphasizing any idea of "population control". Much of the new policy came from the commission headed by Dr. Sawminathan but no new official policy resulted, partly due to many politicians unwillingness to take up the issue. Still, many targets for family planning supplies and services were officially dropped by the central ministry in Delhi, although the new "target free" approach was often not followed at the state and local level. States such as Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan designed their own programs in which targets were not abandoned. Evidence of this, for example, is the high percentage of younger women, ages 25 to 29, who were found to be sterilized by the National Family Health Survey-2 in 1998 to 1999 in Andhra Pradesh, 67 percent.

In 2000, the central government finally defined a new population policy, which covered a wide spectrum of health concerns and services for mothers and children. The new policy, National Population Policy 2000 (NPP2000), also set another too ambitious goal for a two-child family, the year 2010. Despite the more comprehensive scope of the policy, which, in the long run, will be of lasting benefits, differences of opinion continue on approaches to population policies. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, some states adopted policies to allow elected officials down to the village level only two children. This step was clearly intended for officials to set an example. Yet such a drastic policy was likely to have unwanted results, particularly increased abortion of female foetuses given the strong preference for male children. Today, the two child limit for officials is in force in Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, and Rajasthan and in parts of Maharashtra. Three states, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, which did have such a policy, withdrew it following outcries from many segments of society.

When we consider population policy in India, the independence of state governments from the centre must be considered. And, the current demographic situation gives added importance to the role of local government. While it is true that the number of children per woman has been halved since 1950, from six to three, continued significant progress may be in doubt. Much of India's birth rate decline has been in the states of the south where educational levels and the status of women is generally higher. As a result, any future success in fertility reduction will come from the poorer and more rural northern states where levels of poverty are higher.

The average number of children per woman differs in the States of India