By Rainer Lindner and Samuel Skipper

This is an excerpt from the SWP-study "Russlands defekte Demographie" ("Russia’s Demographic Crisis").- See German version for annotations.

Dimensions of the Demographic Crisis

Russia’s demographic crisis derives from low birth rates, the lowest life expectancy Europe-wide, high death rates and the ageing of society. The state of health of most people is poor and is additionally aggravated by excessive alcohol consumption and drug abuse. Russia’s peripheral regions are depopulating as a result of net migration outflows exceeding inflows. The future risks entailed in the demographic crisis affect the Russian statehood as well as the economic and military security of the country.

Population Development

Fertility. According to official figures, by 2050 Russia’s population could fall from the current 142 million people to some 100 million. Low fertility rates, rising mortality, and the poor state of health are generally viewed as the main reasons for this negative trend. This negative demographic trend goes back to historical as well as present developments: Since the end of the 1950s fewer children than needed for a stable population balance were born in the Soviet Republic and in the Western industrialised countries. The Soviet demography already predicted the population shrinkage in the 1960s. Russia experienced the historical "demographic transition" from high birth and death rates to low ones with delay. As a result of the late industrialisation, of the Stalinist modernisation from above and of the rural restructuring, the urbanisation process and the decline of the extended family unit, representative of the rural agrarian society, occurred later than in the rest of Europe.

At the beginning of the 1980s the Soviet regime attempted to undertake measures to reverse the trend of declining birth rates by promoting campaigns such as paid maternity leave with secure employment conditions and income. Yet, the rise in birth rates did not occur in a sustained manner. The campaigns aimed at elevating birth rates in the late Soviet era were hindered by the dramatic number of abortions, which up to the present time have fallen slightly. For the year 2005, the chairwoman of the Duma Committee for Women, Family and Children, Ekaterina Lachowa, confirmed a total number of 1.7 million abortions with 1.4 million live births.

The small number of cohorts born during the years of turmoil after 1991 will lead over the foreseeable future to declining birth rates in Russia and in other post-Soviet states. Russia’s regions differ in mortality as well as fertility. Today a balanced quote of births and deaths has been recorded only in 18 out of Russia’s 81 federal subjects, 17 of which are inhabited mainly by non-Russian minorities. A women in the mainly by Muslims populated Dagestan gives birth on average to 4.9 children, whereas a Moscow woman only to 1.4. While the demographic crisis affects primarily the ethnic Russians in urban areas, the birth rates of the Muslim population have increased in the past years. The highest birth rates in the country are currently found in Chechnya and in other parts of the Caucasian region. It therefore comes as no surprise that since 1989 the proportion of Muslims in Russia has increased by 40 to 50 per cent. Regions with a Muslim majority include Tatarstan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Dagestan. The proportion of ethnic Russians, on the other hand, declined nation-wide between 1996 and 2006 from 83 to 79.8 per cent. One exception to the rule is Tyumen, an energy-rich region in Western Siberia, which is characterised by an above replacement fertility thanks to a high per capita income, a developed social infrastructure and the influx of young families.

Mortality. The main cause of Russia’s demographic trend, which differs from trends of other European and non-European states, is the high mortality rates. While in developed industrialised nations like Germany, Japan, or even China ageing has become the most pressing demographic challenge, in Russia the dramatic decrease of life expectancy of men and women has further aggravated the problem. Low life expectancy is the result of failed health and social reforms during the Soviet era as well as in the post-Soviet period.

At present the life expectancy is 58.4 years for Russian men and 71.9 years among Russian women, thereby placing the country 136th in the world. The death rate of men of employable age in particular has reached alarming levels. Since the mid-sixties, as a result of the underdeveloped health system and alcoholism, the Soviet Union belonged to the countries with a low life expectancy (1965: 65 years for men, 73.6 years for women). The decline in average age in Russia continued while people in the rest of Europe turned increasingly older. Between 1991 and 2003 life expectancy fell by 4.9 years for Russian men and by 2.4 years for Russian women. The probability of death for males aged between 15 and 60 years stood at 48 per cent, whereas the figure in Germany lied at 11.2 per cent and in Japan at only 9.2 per cent.

Along with Ukraine, Russia with its drastically sinking life expectancy is breaking away from the overall positive European trend. The figures released by the Russian government during the elections in 2007 indicated a sudden rise in life expectancy to 66.8 years (60.37 years for men, 73.23 for women) in 2007. Moreover, rising birth and sinking death rates in nearly all of Russia’s federation subjects were mentioned. However, the same findings cannot be drawn from the figures issued by the United Nations. Assuming the health provision improves, the UN predicts an average life expectancy rising to 65.6 years for the period between 2010 and 2015 and further to 67.1 years (2015 to 2020), 68.6 years (2020 to 2025) and 73.4 years (2045 to 2050).

Demographic Index for the Russian Federation

Ageing. Despite the high mortality and a life expectancy that has fallen in the past fifty years (for men in particular), ageing is a central problem in Russia. The proportion of over 65-year-olds will amount to 18 per cent by 2025; in 2000 it was at twelve per cent. This will put a considerable strain on public spending. Public expenses for elderly care and medical treatment will also augment and so will the pressure to politically implement public health and other prevention concepts for elderly and other people in need of care. Following the election year 2007/2008, government and President will come upon central domestic task, which will clearly go beyond the framework of the up to now envisaged »National Projects«.
As reported by demographers, the age dependency ratio will lead to social disproportions within the next 15 years: according to moderate estimates from the UN a third of the population (32.8 per cent) will be older than 60 by 2050; at the same time, the number of 18-year-old men is likely to drop by 50 per cent in the next 15 years.

Health Crisis

The health crisis is among the group of factors responsible for the demographic crisis. The historical legacy of »free« healthcare during the Soviet era still plays an important role. In the sixties and the seventies the Soviet state spent per capita four to six times less in healthcare than the United States, Japan and France. The outcome of poor health provision and insufficient health and hygiene education is an ill society. The chaotic transition process during the nineties provoked social fragmentation and the impoverishment of a substantial part of the population, for whom health was not affordable anymore. Poor health care and excessive alcohol consumption make people prone to sequelae. Adults are not the only ones affected. Almost half of the children in Russia (45 per cent) are born with cardiovascular diseases or weak immune system vulnerable to AIDS. Heart diseases among under-forty-year-olds have risen since 2001 to 36 per cent. Along with cardiovascular diseases, which with 1.28 million cases and 56 per cent are still the main cause of death, the high number of people infected with tuberculosis is likewise striking: with 120.000 new cases per year (in 2007 117.738 Tbc-infections were registered, 3000 of which among children under 14) and 32.000 Tbc deaths in 2006. A high estimated number of unreported cases should also be taken into account.

30 per cent of Tbc infections in Russia are classified as not treatable due to the lack of medication. In addition, HIV/AIDS and Hepatitis play a significant role. Also flu epidemics, characterised by high casualty figures, repeatedly spread into Russian cities.

The health crisis directly affects births: as a result of poor medical treatment and inadequate hygienic conditions, approximately ten million women of reproductive age are infertile.

HIV/AIDS in particular is on the rise in Russia. In 2006 UN calculations estimated up to 1.6 million HIV-infected people in Russia, although only 369.187 cases were officially recorded. Murray Feshbach of the Woodrow Wilson Center estimates 80 per cent of Russian patients to be younger than 30 years, whereas in the West 70 per cent are older than 30. Because of inadequate detection systems, lack of insurance networks and a pronounced distrust of the population in medical and clinical treatment, the estimated number of unreported cases is far bigger. For a long time ideological movements prevailed, that wanted people to believe epidemics would refrain from crossing the Russian borders. Worst-case scenarios predict up to eight million infected people by 2010. This would have a dramatic impact on the health system and the state budget. According to the UN calculations, without HIV/AIDS people in Russia would live on average 0.6 years longer before 2006 and even two years longer before 2020. Societies undergoing transformations are »stressed« societies. The downfall of the Soviet Union generated additional psychological pressure in large sections of society. Individuals feel socially insecure as a result of the pluralisation of life-worlds. The resort to drugs, alcohol and criminality are the ensuing symptoms. Approximately five million people in Russia are currently addicted to drugs. Up to 10.000 people died in 2007 due to drug abuse. Not only the geographical proximity to drug-producing countries like Afghanistan, but also the rapid growth of the consumption markets has turned Russia into one of the biggest heroin markets worldwide.

Alcohol consumption has increased significantly, in particular among men. According to official data, almost 900.000 people died between 1995 and 2006 from the effects of alcohol abuse. In Russia up to 40 000 people yearly still die through acute alcohol poisoning. Almost half the men that pass away after accidents and cardiovascular diseases were alcoholic at the time of occurrence. There is a casual relation between alcohol abuse – 19 litres of pure alcohol per capita and year (compared to the EU average of twelve litres)-and other disease patterns. On top of that, a rising propensity towards violence has been recorded in the Russian society. Tensions, criminal energy and alcohol abuse erupt with increasing frequency into psychological violence against others and oneself. The suicide rate in the nineties rose to 50 per cent; about 500.000 people committed suicide between 1995 and 2003. Despite slightly declining figures, in 2006 an annual average of 19 homicides and 28 suicides per 100.000 inhabitants still occurred. In comparison to other European states the homicide rate indicates a value ten to twenty times higher.

Literature / Links

Rainer Lindner: Russlands defekte Demographie. SWP-Studie, Berlin 2008. http://www.swp-berlin.org/produkte/swp_studie.php?id=8874.

Erik Albrecht: Extremes Gefälle aus Tradition. In: Das Parlament 35/36,25.08./01.09.2008.

Rainer Lindner: Dramatischer Schwund. In: Das Parlament 35/36,25.08./01.09.2008.

Nicole Alexander: Abgehängt vom Aufschwung. In: Das Parlament 35/36,25.08./01.09.2008.

State: November 2008

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