By Lilli Sippel, Tanja Kiziak, Franziska Woellert, Reiner Klingholz

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Hungarian Abstract (PDF)

Population growth: reasons and consequences

The world population has reached a number of approximately seven billion and continues to grow strongly by about 79 million people each year. This growth is almost exclusively taking place in the less developed countries.

The continuous population growth there can be attributed to three factors:  Firstly, women in developing countries have significantly more children than in the developed regions of the world. Secondly, the populations in the developing countries are on average very young because of their high birth rates. As a result the number of women of child bearing age is high and will increase even more in the future. And thirdly, most people in the poorest regions are living longer due to improved health care and better food security.

Several risks and development obstacles arise from high population growth, for example, lack of food security, pressure on the health and education systems, overburdening of the infrastructure or scarcity of resources. All of this ultimately results in larger conflict potential.

In our study of 103 current and former developing countries, we could show that no single country has developed socio-economically without a parallel decline in the birth rate. Therefore, the development status of a country is closely linked to its population structure.

Demographic challenges in Africa

For development policy, the most prevalent and severe problems today occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Of the 48 least developed countries in the world, 33 are located in this part of Africa. At the same time, this region stands out with the highest birth rates in the world. By the year 2050, the number of people in sub-Saharan Africa may double and by the end of the century it may quadruple.

Population growth could turn out to be even larger, if, for example, contraceptive use in sub-Saharan Africa does not become significantly more widespread than today. As far as the use of modern contraceptive methods is concerned, West Africa falls particularly far behind.

What leads to smaller families

Population growth and high birth rates can in no way be fully attributed to the desire to have large families. Rather, they are in part due to the fact that women and couples lack effective birth control methods. When people are able to exercise their sexual and reproductive rights, i.e. if contraceptives are available, sex education is provided and reproductive health and information services are expanded, the number of children will decrease in accordance with the wishes of the people. However, more needs to be done. Since, on average, women in developing countries wish to have fewer children than men, the way to lower the birth rates is mainly through the empowerment of women.

Birth rates decrease demonstrably,

• if women have more of a say in their families and in society, and if they have alternatives to their role as mothers.
  
  
• if girls and women have unrestricted access to sex education, family planning and contraceptives.
  
  
• if girls and women attain a better education. In particular, attending secondary school causes women to have children later and to be more actively engaged in family planning.
  
  
• if new opportunities are created, such as by moving from the country to the city, through improved earning possibilities or through a new family image conveyed by the media.
  
  
• if child mortality is decreased. Couples are only willing to have fewer children if there is a higher chance of survival for each individual child.

Opportunities of demographic development

If mortality and fertility decrease, a young population can become the engine for the national economy. The experience of the Asian Tigers is proof of this. At the beginning of their impressive development, these countries had a demographic starting point similar to that of many sub-Saharan countries today and their level of development at that time was just as bad. The development boost of the Asian Tigers was made possible by two fundamental changes:

1. A demographic bonus was created because the number of people of working age increased in relation to the number of dependant young and old people. In order to create such a favourable age structure, the many children and adolescents have to grow up, mortality in the working age group must decrease, and fertility must decline so that the upcoming young generations (and the related burden) will shrink.
   
   
2. The demographic bonus could be transformed into a demographic dividend, i.e. into a gain for the national economy, because the many employable people actually had the opportunity to become employed. For this, people must be educated and jobs have to be created.

The Asian Tigers have simultaneously invested in education and family planning, and have carried out necessary economic reforms and initiatives. In addition, these societies recognised that the labour participation by women is absolutely necessary for economic progress and that education is a crucial prerequisite for this goal. It was exactly this comprehensive approach which made the successes of the Tiger States possible.

Even if the concept of demographic dividends cannot simply be transferred from the Asian Tigers to the countries of sub-Saharan Africa due to cultural, political and economic differences, the way to the demographic dividend, in principle, is open for the African states. Yet politics have to determine the correct course.

Focal points for action

As long as mortality, especially child mortality, and fertility remain as high in sub-Saharan Africa as they currently are, a demographic bonus cannot emerge and therefore no opportunity for economically favourable development will arise. Investments in health and family planning, as well as in education can be identified as the most important starting points to attain a demographic bonus.

The national governments and the various partners of development cooperation should see it as their job for the health sector,

• to strengthen the health systems,
  
  
• to establish and expand basic health care,
   
• to make disease prevention possible through simple means,
  
  
• to carry out vaccination campaigns for children,
  
  
• to improve sexual and reproductive health,
  
  
• to offer sexuality education,
  
  
• to facilitate the access to contraceptives and
  
  
• to find advocates and use the media to create knowledge about health issues and acceptance of contraceptives.

Education must be recognised as the key factor for development. It prepares the way for the demographic bonus because mortality and fertility will decrease with the population's rising standard of education. In addition, the human capital increases through education. Education thus becomes the most important tool to achieve the demographic dividend. Therefore it is necessary

• to create equal education opportunities for girls,
  
  
• to expand secondary education in particular because it is crucial for a decrease in fertility and an economic upswing,
  
  
• to establish vocational training as a hinge between school and the working world, and
  
  
• to provide microcredits to improve the education of adult women and to empower them. At the same time, this will promote entrepreneurship.

The human capital, which decidedly improves through education and lower numbers of children, must also be utilised by the national economy. In order to achieve this, jobs must be created. It is essential

• to create productive employment opportunities for men and women, and in doing so,
  
  
• to first invest mainly in sectors with a high need for low-skilled workers, and
  
  
• to create jobs in knowledge-intensive sectors that achieve greater added value as a second step once the population’s level of education has increased.

When the formal employment sector grows, social security systems should be developed. On the one hand, this will cause birth rates to decrease because children will become less important as old age security. On the other hand, this is a first step to prepare for the long-term ageing of the population.

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If you have questions or requests for interviews, please contact Tanja Kiziak at +49 30-31 01 74 50 or Reiner Klingholz at +49 30-31 01 75 60.

You can order the German or English version of the study for a nominal fee of 2,50 Euros. Please send an email with your name and address with the number of studies requested at info(at)berlin-institut.org.

The study has been published as a part of the awareness raising
campaign "Africa’s Demographic Challenges". The publication has been
produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The
contents of the publication are the sole responsibility of the partner
organisations involved in the campaign and can under no circumstances
be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.