Population and development in Africa

Africa is not only Europe's neighbour, but also the world region with the strongest population growth. While 1.5 billion people live on the continent today, the African population is estimated to reach 2.5 billion by 2050. The rapid population growth is exacerbating many existing challenges in African countries. But with targeted international population policies, African governments not only have the opportunity to slow down their population growth. They can also hope for an economic upturn through a demographic dividend.

A continent of demographic diversity

One cannot speak of "Africa's demographic development" because the 54 countries of this diverse continent are at very different points in the so-called demographic transition. Although mortality rates in all African countries have already fallen significantly, there are large differences in fertility rates: while women in Tunisia or South Africa, for example, give birth on average to around two children, the fertility rate in other countries on the continent is closer to six children.

Accelerating change

In order to advance the demographic transition, African governments must work on several fronts at the same time: They must invest more in health systems so that mortality rates – especially among children – continue to fall. Greater investments must also be made in education: in many African countries, young people receive fewer years of schooling than in most of the rest of the world. However, one of the greatest challenges on the continent remains the creation of good, secure jobs. Between now and 2040, two million additional jobs would have to be created every month in sub-Saharan Africa alone for the growing number of young people in the region to have good employment prospects.

Innovative approaches and best practice examples

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to address these challenges. Diverse and parallel approaches and measures are needed to improve living conditions and contribute to the demographic transition. These can range from health worker deployments to Ethiopia’s most remote regions and well-designed supply chains for contraceptives in Senegal, to digital education programs in Kenya and the expansion of value chains for agricultural products in Ghana. If these can be replicated widely and if African governments implement a coherent demographic policy, African countries have the chance of realising a demographically driven economic upturn: a demographic dividend.

Under-five mortality remains high in many African countries

Child mortality remains high in many African countries: in Niger in 2024, an estimated 113 out of 1,000 children will die before their fifth birthday. Child mortality is an important indicator of living conditions. If it falls, this usually indicates an improvement in key areas such as health, education and employment. Investments in these areas are crucial to directly and indirectly reducing child mortality.

Stark differences in declining fertility rates across Africa

The number of children women have in Africa varies greatly from region to region. While women in Somalia give birth to an average just over six children, in Tunisia this number is already below the level of 2.1 children per woman at which the population stabilises. Other countries, such as Ethiopia, are experiencing a rapid decline in birth rates: from over seven children per woman in 1994 to just under four children in 2024.

Fertility rates are falling globally

A look at fertility rates shows the same trend across all world regions: on average, women today have significantly fewer children than they did a few decades ago. However, the course of this trend differs: while countries in Latin America, North America and Asia experienced a rapid decline in the number of children per woman between 1960 and 1980, in Africa this number only began to decline in the 1980s and at a slower rate. Even though the fertility rate in Africa has fallen sharply since then, it is still higher today than in other regions at four children per woman – a level that Asian and Latin American countries had in the 1970s. In Europe, the fertility rate has been lower than 2.1 for decades, the level at which the population remains stable in the absence of migration. Today, women in Europe have an average of 1.4 children.

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