International population policies

The world population is growing: by the middle of the 21st century, there will be 9.7 billion people on earth – 2.5 billion more than today. This growth is increasingly concentrated in low-income countries in West and South Asia and Africa, while population numbers elsewhere are already stagnating or declining. Sustainable development strategies must take these different demographic realities into account and adapt measures to the respective challenges.

Investments that have an impact

The population is currently growing most rapidly in low-income countries that are still at the beginning of the demographic transition. In sub-Saharan Africa alone, the population is expected to increase by two thirds by 2050, making up a large part of the global population growth by the middle of the century. In order to initiate the change in the age structure that is necessary for a demographic dividend, the average number of children per woman must continue to fall. Education, good jobs and social security systems enable people to lead self-determined lives, which can lead to fewer children. Improvements in gender equality and the realisation of sexual and reproductive health and rights also help people to only have as many children as they want.

Taking advantage of the youth bulge

Job creation is particularly important for those countries that are further along in the demographic transition. Due to lower birth rates, countries such as Tunisia, Brazil and Bangladesh are no longer growing as rapidly. However, they have a large youth surplus, or in other words, a large number of young people of working age in relation to the total population. This age structure of the so-called demographic bonus offers the chance of a demographic dividend under the right conditions. Demographic policies in these countries must not only urgently create employment prospects for young people, but also set the course to be prepared for the future ageing process of society.

Ageing as a challenge

Those countries that are already well advanced in the demographic transition are hardly contributing to global population growth anymore. Due to low birth rates, many are already experiencing a decline in their population numbers and are rapidly ageing. The median age, which divides the population into two equally sized groups, is 46 in Germany and almost 50 in Japan. Here, the proportion of older people compared to people of working age is steadily increasing, which is putting increasing pressure on social protection and pension systems. It is becoming increasingly urgent to find sustainable demographic policy solutions for this, because with the ageing generation of the "baby boomers", the challenge posed by demographic change is becoming increasingly greater in many countries.

Where populations growth continues

The world population is just over eight billion people in 2024 and continues to grow. However, growth has been slowing down for decades and the world population is estimated to peak at ten billion in the 2080s. Some regions of the world contribute the most to the ongoing growth of the world population. Half of the anticipated global population growth between now and 2050 will take place in just six countries. Four of them are in Africa: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and Tanzania. Two of them are in Asia: India and Pakistan. The social and economic challenges that these countries face are enormous. The strong population growth is already causing many governments difficulties in providing their populations with adequate education, hospitals, food, clean water and jobs.

Fertility rates vary significantly worldwide

Regional differences in the number of children have a major impact on the global distribution of population growth. For example, women in Europe and North America today give birth to fewer than 2 children on average. At a fertility rate of 2.1, the population would remain constant in the long term – not taking migration into account. When the fertility rate drops below this, as it has for example in Germany (1.45), Canada (1.34) and South Korea (0.73), the population starts shrinking in the long term in the absence of immigration. China, which had long been the most populous country in the world, has also been shrinking since 2023 and has been replaced by India in terms of the largest population. The number of children and thus also the population growth are highest in Africa – especially south of the Sahara. On average, women on the African continent give birth to four children.

Contacts

Phone: +49 - 30 31 01 95 91

E-mail: rose@berlin-institut.org

Phone: +49 30 - 22 32 48 45

E-mail: hinz@berlin-institut.org